Monday,
April 21, 2003 3:25 AM
Hand Evaluation –
Doubles ( Taking out Insurance )
PITBULLS:
I going to quote a good Polish philosopher/
player ( Klimo ). “ Take the cheap insurance from time to time & you will
be ahead by a mile!!! “ I think the
frequent playing of “match points” is screwing up our IMP game philosophy . In
match points , we are so scared of a minus
that we visualize the worst case scenario all the time so do not “take out
insurance” . In IMP’s , the insurance to bid one more time to prevent
a double partial/game/slam swing is the winning strategy . If you guess
wrong & blow 200 to prevent a –19 loss , it is a small
price to pay . If the opponents get lucky so make a doubled game on a forcing
pass auction
, it is only –4 as partners are assumed to be in the game
also . So , one good result with a forcing pass
auction you get +12 in return so 3 bad
results of a doubled game making you break even !
Penalty doubles are a recipe
for disaster. A pull of a double with a void & a 6 - 5 is taking
out insurance against a disaster . You stand way
more to lose by leaving in a double than bidding again if you can get out cheaply . It is just plain logic .
In poker , there is a concept of “pot odds” where you only gamble if your expected
gain matches the probability of success of your hand . In Bridge , it is similar but in a different manner . What are
the expectation of your possible loss , if you do not “take out
insurance” . Is there a double game swing ? Do you
have a slam ? Do you have a grand slam
? What is your expected loss if there is a worst case scenaio ? Back to Klimo’s
quote above .
Playing D.S.I.P. competitive doubles is “taking
out insurance” against bad penalty doubles in competition. By not allowing penalty doubles in competition
unless converted by partner
, many disasters are avoided. Penalty doubles only occur when partner has
defense with you having their trump , which is a lethal mixture for the opponents. The
single handed “penalty doubles” being removed from competitive auctions , should result in lowering the premiums
against doubling the opponents from partials into game.
On the infamous disaster Jones
& I had , Lorna & Lorna also had a disaster
the other direction . Lorna doubled 5♣ & they made it when they had a
sacrifice that made 5 their way ! Lorna felt that Lloyda could have saved the day by pulling the double with
her 6 –5 in the majors . However ,
Klimo says “wait a minute” , why can’t Lorna take out
cheap insurance & bid 5♥ instead of
doubling ? Lorna doubled 5♣ with
the AJx of clubs finding the KQ on the board to hold
it to 5 .
If the club honours were split ,
the hand makes 6 . Why gamble with a double when cheap insurance is probably 100 . You get rewarded when partner actually makes this
hand .
Peter Jones held ♠xxx ♥xx
♦J10xx ♣AKQx
against Kiz & Klimo . I
opened a diamond nv , Klimo bid 2♦ vul . Peter bid 3♣
& Kiz bid 3♠ . I leaped to 5♣ so Klimo bid 5♠. Peter doubled but they made 5 spades doubled vulnerable .
If he had taken out insurance by bidding 6♣/♦
not vul ,
he would have been rewarded as I can make either contract . Again , Peter did not know that we could make 6 of a minor .
It is just an IMP insurance bid against disaster . Peter
had all his HCP’s located in my suits , so 20
imps is a lot to explain in one hand .
The most stupid bid in Bridge is to
be fixated on your hand & not take action in a forcing pass situation . Say partner
doubles an initial bid of 2♦
, when the opponents bid 4♥ he now
bids 4♠ . The
opponents persist to 5 hearts & partner who has done all this bidding passes . This pass has to be forcing as he doubled & bid game all by himself. The pass says
he wants to play the hand if your hand is suitable & double if it is not . He could hold 24 HCP for all you know
. Your hand is
♠xxx
♥xxx ♦xxxx ♣xxx
Do you pass because you hand is so weak ? A pass would destroy the partnership . Your double card should hit the
table very fast. When you double
, your hand has got nothing
to do with this auction . You are just following forcing pass orders &
choosing your option .
Being ashamed of your opener is no
reason to pass a forcing pass . You hold ♠void
♥KQ10x ♦K109xx
♣KJxx . You open a diamond , hear 2♦ to your left & partner bids 2♥ showing a limit raise or better . The
opponents bid 2♠ , you pass with the opponents bidding 4♠ &
partner makes a forcing pass . You have quite a dog .
Maybe you should pass in case they make it ? Not on
your life , partner could have 4 Aces therefore wondering
if there was a grand . I actually held 3 Aces so 5♦
makes . This was a double game swing as 4♠ makes .
Anyway ,
one thing I have learned in Bridge over the years is the importance of
“forcing passes” . Forcing pass’s are taking
out insurance when the opponents are meddling in your auction. It is right up there with the most important
concepts in Bridge .
In rubber bridge , you do have the luxury of
“forcing passes” because you need a partner you can trust. With
your regular partner , you should have forcing passes
discussed inside & out . This is my 5th e-mail just around this subject to
the Pitbulls. I think a book can be written on all
the nuances. If you do not play forcing passes , play with the dentist so all penalty doubles
show 100 honours in trump . You do not have to
think or make any decisions that
way . However , finding a good partner
will prove pretty difficult…