Saturday, August-23-08

 

Hand Evaluation – Tactics ( Gambling )

 

PITBULLS:

 

         Good Bridge players & also good gamblers. Gambling should occur in Bridge but intelligent gambling. Bridge players should borrow from poker players when it comes to the concept of gambling. Poker players gamble when the "pot odds" are in their favour. This means that the $ amount of their expected winnings is greater than the odds of them losing. In other words , the monetary reward justifies the risk taken. In Bridge , it is the same thing. The expected gain in IMPS must far exceed the IMPS you could possibly lose to justify the gamble.  It is silly to pre-empt vulnerable  against non vulnerable opponents when you can go for a huge number. You are only trying to talk them out of a nv game which is 420. You are risking -1100 to keep them out of a NV game ? The risk far exceeds the expected gain. Opening a NV pre-empt against a vul opponent , the pot odds change. You can go for -800 against -660 for virtually a push in IMPS . So this is an intelligent gamble. Same with overcalls & other aspects of Bridge where there is some element of risk . Factor in what you can gain against what you can lose before you make the gamble.

 

         Here is a hand  from Thursday night IMPS where a lot of gambling took place. The opponents open 1NT ( strong ), you have ♠KQ987x ♥AJxx ♦K ♣Kx  . You are too strong for a toy or a mere overcall so you double. The opponents pass is alerted as it forces a XX. Partner holds ♠J ♥K1098x ♦xxx ♣xxxx  so with 4 HCP the HCP's are pretty close to being equal 20-20 so you gamble it out as 1NTX is not game & maybe you can pick up +300. However , the 1NTX turns into 1NTXX so over to you again. You now are risking a game against achieving a small set so the pot odds have changed . Partner does not know what to lead , defense is harder than offence & this one is too close to call. Leaving in the doubled & XX'd contract is a poor gamble. You gamble intelligently by bidding 2♥ & partner surprises you by bidding 4♥ which is cold.

 

    The player at my table liked the thrill of gambling. I made 4NT in 1NTXX & they can make game the other direction.

 

  24>  -3.25    -16.0   -9.50  9.50  3.25    -2.25  1.00  16.00    -1.00   2.25
        -170*     -1160   -420*  420   170     -140*  100  1160*   -100*   140

 

 

       This is merely a 26 IMP swing for poor gambling. The pot odds changed dramatically with the XX so you must re-assess your initial gamble. There is much more at stake now. You are captain of the auction so you could have a lot more than a stiff Jack & an outside King to punish the opponents at the one level. Gamble appropriately. Be aware when the pot odds change.

 

            Tom Gandolfo , my partner also gambled with this hand but gambled in accordance with the pot odds. He had a 5 card diamond suit with 5 HCP which is no guarantee to make 1NTX. He might have pulled 1NTX to 2♦ to take out insurance against a couple down as his expected gain is only +180 for making the contract. However , with the XX , the pot odds change for him. Leaving in the XX is far more lucrative now for our side. He is gambling 1 down XX for a XX’d game gained. Tom took the intelligent gamble & passed the XX . There is science to gambling.