Tuesday, January 03, 2006 4:52 PM

Hand Evaluation – Mathematics (High Level )

PITBULLS:

The scoring & vulnerability is the “mathematics” of Bridge decision making. When the opponents pre-empt you to the 5 level or higher & partner doubles , she is not promising a T/O double per se. A double at this level just shows “cards” so in most cases the double ends the auction. The only time the double is pulled is if slam or a vul game is virtually guaranteed . In IMPS , you shrug your shoulders , take your fix even if by bidding you can get a better score. Your partners better be wrecking the same level of havoc at the other table. The 5 level belongs to the opponents in 99% of the hands. Pre-empts force you into decisions you do not want to make or bad gambles you should not make. Just taking your plus is the easy way out in a vast majority of hands. The “house” has the edge in these kind of gambles & the pre-empter is the house.

An opening bid of 4 of a major or 5 of a minor puts a partnership in a different “zone” . The doubles are not takeout but co-operative or D.S.I.P. Here is an example of a bad decision induced by a pre-empt. Equal vulnerability nv RHO opened 5♣ . I held ♠KJ1098 ♥A ♦Axxx ♣Q109 so I doubled to show cards & trying to discourage a 5♥ balancer . Partner held ♠x ♥KJ109xx ♦KQxx ♣AK so with equal vulnerability bid 6♥. Let’s examine the mathematics of the bid. If we make 6♥ , we get +980 so if we go down one which was happened at the table we get –50 . The 5♣ bidder goes for –1100 with an outside chance of –1400 . ♠Qx ♥xx ♦x ♣Jxxxxxxx. You have no guarantee of making 6 of anything as the double shows “cards” so may even be void in hearts. Bidding is just a silly blind gamble.

Playing with my regular partner , RHO opened 5♦ so again I wanted to show “cards” to discourage a 5♠ balancer so I doubled with ♠x ♥AJ1098x ♦KJx ♣Kxx . The 5 level belongs to the opponents & we are equal vulnerability nv. Partner held ♠Axxx ♥Kxxx ♦void ♣Axxxx but with the diamond void , it is very tempting to pull. The opponents can easily have 8 or 9 solid diamonds so we are playing with a 30 HCP deck. I think passing here may be the wrong bid . We can beat 5♦X 800 with perfect defense but I do not need to hold wastage in diamonds for my double but I may have. I could also hold the club queen so 7♥ would make. Entering the decision whether to bid is the problem of bad breaks & not knowing what suit in which to play the hand. With a long suit shown on the auction , your trump suits are not going to break well. You cannot just blindly guess & bid 6♣ as partner may be void in clubs or the suit may break badly. A 4-4 major fit may get pretty bad breaks also . An expert has a tool of 5NT which says choose a slam somewhere partner. If partner just wanted you to pick a major , she would have bid 6♦. On this hand , we land on our feet as over BJ’s 5NT bid , I bid 6♥ so we get +980. These kind of decisions are huge swings as you are changing a reasonable plus to a minus. To force partner to bid , you must be pretty sure you have an iron clad plus. Changing a +500 to a –50 or getting +980 is a huge IMP swing.

Would the vulnerability change any of these decisions ? Of course , as the expected gain or pot odds would have been taken into consideration but Bridge involves intelligent gambling or risk taking. If the pot odds are not to your liking , they still buy the contract at the 5 level.