Monday, August 30, 2004 5:36 PM

Hand Evaluation – HCPS ( Meckwell Games )

PITBULLS:

The Meckwell partnership bid a lot of 10 opposite 13 HCP games especially 3NT games. They make more than their fair share so expound this as a strategy in IMPS. Should this be a strategy for us mere mortals ? Let’s examine why this strategy works for them. They open on 9 HCP & although they are aware of this , 13-14 HCP’s as responder is just too much to play a partial. Therefore , the 23 HCP 3NT games are bid. With superb declarer play & bad defense , these games make more often than they should for them.

Bridge has to obey the law of probabilities , as Bridge deals are random statistical events. These laws are only valid in the statistical concept of the “long run”. In other words , there has to be enough hands played so that these laws hold true. Meckwell play at very high levels where their matches are quite long. 64 , 72 board matches are not uncommon at their level. With these number of boards played , mathematics & probabilities definitely comes into play. Say Meckwell bid a 23 HCP 3NT that goes down one vul . They lose 100+120 or 6 IMPS . A few hands later , they bid another 23 HCP game so lose another 6 IMPS. The 3^rd time they make it so win 12 IMPS . If they make one of these games in 3 attempts they break even ! If luck is on their side so they make 2 out of 3 of these games , they win 18 IMPS overall in their run.

A certain percentage of all games bid & made can be beaten with the correct opening lead. Everybody does not always make the correct opening lead. A certain percentage of games can be beaten with the correct defense. People do not always defend correctly. A certain percentage of games are made just due to plain luck in the placement of cards. Other than Peter Jones , all players have their share of good luck J. These are factors that favour the Meckwell approach to bidding these tight 3NT games. Another factor in their favour , is their degree of Bridge skill. Their declarer play , reading the cards , technical issues , deception are all top notch . These 23 HCP games test these skills to the limit.

On the flip side , these 10 opposite 13 HCP games are not favoured to make. There just are not enough HCP’s to come to 9 tricks. This is proven over & over again as to be a Bridge law. We have all passed 10 HCP hands when partner rebids a NT & watched him go down in one ! With a flat 10 , I never invite after a 1NT rebid as the expectations are they go down most of the time. Bidding 23 HCP 3NT games is risk taking or just plain gambling. There is good gambling & bad gambling. Risk taking when the odds are not in your favour is bad gambling. In the short run like a Swiss match , bidding a 23 3NT game is stupid gambling. In 7 boards you do not have the opportunity to get it back by making a close game. In a 26 board match , I do not think that you have reached the “long run” where bidding these games are statistically valid. If you are down 40 IMPS at the half , bidding these games is a good gamble.

I think you must have a reason to gamble in order to reach these 23 HCP Meckwell games. Maurice made a valid point in defending a big half time lead. Swing with the opponents to prevent disasters from occurring . He was playing against opposition who played 13-15 HCP 1NT openers. He knew that 10 HCP as a dummy would warrant a game bid or try opposite that range. He advised Susan to move with 10 HCP’s to compensate for their bidding system at the other table after Maurices 1NT rebid. This is smart risk taking in order to preserve a big lead. However, under normal circumstances passing is going to work most of the time. I think leaving 23 HCP NT games to the Meckwells of the world , makes sense to me.

I buy into Meckwell games in only one instance. We play the “godfather 2NT” by responder that on occasion lands us into some dicey 3NT games. The only problem with these is I must remember to play them like Meckwell . J