Friday,
September 09, 2005 10:40 AM
Hand
Evaluation – Pre-empts ( Pot Odds )
PITBULLS:
Bridge
involves taking risks . However , like poker ,
the ‘pot odds” must be in your favour . What are pot odds as defined in the
poker sense ? What this concept means is that when you
risk a bet in poker the amount of money in the pot has to warrant the risk that
you are taking given the probability of winning
the poker hand. In other words , if the chance of you
winning the poker hand is 4:1 and you are risking $25.00 to win $200 it is
a good bet because the “pot odds” are 25/200 or 8:1. In other words the amount
of money you expect to gain
exceeds the odds of losing.
Bridge
experts use the same logic in determining Bridge decisions. A hand that drives
this point home came up Thurs nite. You are in 3rd
seat nv vrs vul opponents with this beautiful collection ♠xxx ♥xxx ♦98765 ♣xx . What tactical bid do
you make if any ? Again this is “pot odds” type of
thinking. Partner is a passed hand . The median HCP’s
for a passed hand is 6 HCP . The reasoning is that
partner could hold 12 ,11 ,10 ,9 , 8 , 7 , 6 , 5 , 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 so the median
or expected HCP’s is 6 right in the middle of the possible passed hands. Therefore, the expected HCP’s for the opponents is 34 HCP ! . This means that on average you have +1430 to play with in
determining your opening bid.
Maurice
chose a psyche of 1♦ , 4 others all at the
expert level chose pre-emptive action with the hand . The novice would say what
a horrible bid – you should be in a mental hospital !!
This hand is not even a baby risk !! . You have so much pot odds on your side
it is not even dangerous in an expert field. Partner gives a lot of leeway when
partner opens 3rd seat nv vrs vul opponents
. The opponents usually get more screwed up ,
miss their slam or make a wrong competitive situation if you “muddy the
waters”. This risk is worth taking
by anybody that has an even basic understanding of the game of Bridge.
Contrast
this with the reckless action of opening 3♦ in 1st
seat vul
vrs nv opponents with ♠xx ♥Kxx ♦KJxxxxx ♣xx . This action is
downright silly as a tactical bid.
Partner is not a passed hand,
so you misdescribe your hand &
leave partner open to making a wrong
decision. This erodes partnership discipline & confidence . So
what are your pot odds or what do you expect to gain from making such a bid ? You have only 3 ½ tricks in your hand so you risk
going down –1400 against NV opponents who because of your heart king most
likely just has a nv game your way. Therefore, your expected gain
is talking them out of a possible nv game by staying in a partial 170 vrs 420 a gain of 6 IMPs . Therefore you are gambling
losing anywhere from 16 to 10 IMPS with sets ranging from –1400 to –500 to gain 6 IMPS. You run the risk of eroding
partnership discipline & making partner “gun shy” in future competitive
auctions. This is IMPS stupidity at
its worse. Which is the safest bid ? It should be obvious that opening or
pre-empting on ♠xxx ♥xxx ♦xxxxx ♣xx nv in 3rd seat opposite vul
opponents is a far safer tactic.
Fools rush in where experts fear to tread & vice versa. Be aware of the risks you are taking ! Bridge experts borrow from poker players in using
pot odds to guide their decisions.
Do
not take risks just for the sake of gambling. Gambling in Bridge should include the
partnership. Bridge is not like poker where you can make singlehanded gambles.
Strike while the iron is hot. When there is a chance that a gamble can get partner as well as the opponents –
do not do it ! If you & partner take a risk to
steal the pot from the opponents , than go for it.
Before taking a risk always ask yourself – how
singlehanded is this gamble in a partnership game. If the pot odds are not in
the partnerships favour – do not do it.