Sunday, March 04, 2007 2:37 AM


Hand Evaluation – Doubles ( Taking Out Insurance )

 

PITBULLS:

 

            Taking out insurance is an IMPS concept that applies to pulling doubles or taking the push when they bid again. This tactic is insurance that you risk a small minus as insurance against the risk of a huge loss. Like all insurance policies , the thinking is based on probabilities. What are the chances they make their vul grand slam so how many will we go down not vulnerable ? In the realm of slams , partner will assist your with the D.S.I.P. undouble .

 

            To prevent single handed sacrifices , we use D.S.I.P. doubles on the appropriate vulnerability to ask permission to bid again even at the game & the partial level.  This double is in effect taking out insurance by bringing partner into the picture. How do you make your decision to bid or pass ?  Pulling doubles is not an easy decision , even when partner wants you to pull with a D.S.I.P. double. There are 4 factors that you must consider . Any defense in HCP’s of course that you can contribute to the cause of defeating them is number one. Partner for her double of a vul major suit game  must have at least 2 ½ quick tricks so the math is easy. You can have a high probability that they are going down where you can not make your contract. Location of these HCP’s are a factor also. Are they outside the suits that partner has been bidding ?

 

            The 2nd very obvious criteria is the strength of their trump you are holding. Lots of wastage there with good spot cards ? How long are they ? Are they getting a 4-1 break or worse ? Points in their suit are entirely useless for partner  in these situations  so identifying duplication of value was the reason D.S.I.P. doubles were born.

 

            In my mind , the most important factor in considering whether to bid or pass , is the law of total tricks. In other words , how many of partners suit do you hold ? The more you hold , the less defensive partners hand becomes. If you have a singleton or doubleton in partners suit your decision becomes easier for the conversion . You will probably be going for –500 or –800 anyway so the –790 is not a disaster. The gray area comes in when you have 3 of partners suit. Any more than that , it is an automatic pull unless you have their trump wrapped up.

 

            The 4th criteria is self preservation. If partner’s D.S.I.P. competitive double has given you a choice of “death by water or death by fire’ , you bite the bullet & just give them their doubled game. Losing 4 IMPS is much better than going for a horrible number yourself . Maybe you can luck out & beat it  !

 

            Tom Gandolfo had ♠x ♥x ♦KQ109 ♣AQJ10xxx , with favourable vulnerability overcalled 2♣ to the 1♠ opener. His LHO bid 2♦ , I passed with the opener bidding 2♥. Tom bid again 3♣ which shows his distribution & they leapt to 4♥ so around to Tom again. Tom would like to sacrifice in 5♣ but cannot do it singlhandedly as I may be void in clubs with wasted points in hearts. He has 2 ½ quick tricks so he doubles to ask permission to sacrifice ( taking out insurance ) . Now the decision is transferred to my side. I hold ♠xxxx ♥Q987 ♦xx ♣xxx so I go thru my criteria. I certainly do not hold any HCP to help him out. I may have 1 or 2 trump tricks depending on whether Tom has a stiff heart honour (10 or better ) & the trump jack is on the board. The 4 trump are in favour of conversion. However , the Law of Total Tricks tells us it is best to take out insurance & bid. Partner has a high probability of holding 7♣ , you have 3 giving 10 trump for the partnership. This is rough estimate that on this auction we may have up to 10 tricks. Also , we cannot get hurt badly in 5♣ so it may be cheap insurance anyway. This is not a case where you must “bite the bullet” & pass as it is too expensive our way to bid.

 

            Bidding 5♣ wins you 10 IMPS as almost everybody is +620 , the law of total tricks is close as you get 9 tricks in clubs (-300). If you leave in the D.S.I.P. double,  you lose 7 ( -790) for a 17 IMP swing. The field only sacrificed once as they do not have the D.S.I.P. tool but would have to have done it singlehandedly. Most players chose just to let them play it in 4♥ & try to beat the contract.

 

            I gave the hand to another partner to see if he would convert . Here is his reply “ Pull. He has defense if I have club shortness. I have one trick (maybe not) and my club length reduces his tricks to 2 (probably). Cheap insurance.”