Sunday, March 04, 2007 2:37 AM
Hand Evaluation – Doubles ( Taking Out Insurance )
PITBULLS:
Taking
out insurance is an IMPS
concept that applies to pulling
doubles or taking the push when they bid
again. This tactic is insurance
that you risk a small minus as insurance against the risk of a huge loss.
Like all insurance policies , the thinking is based on probabilities. What
are the chances they make their vul grand slam so how
many will we go down not vulnerable
? In the realm of slams , partner
will assist your with the D.S.I.P. undouble .
To
prevent single handed sacrifices ,
we use D.S.I.P. doubles on
the appropriate vulnerability to ask permission to bid again even at the game & the partial level. This double is in effect taking out insurance by
bringing partner into the
picture. How do you make your decision to bid or pass ? Pulling
doubles is not an easy decision , even when partner wants you to pull with a D.S.I.P. double. There are 4 factors
that you must consider . Any defense in HCP’s of
course that you can contribute to the cause of defeating them is number one. Partner for her double of a vul major suit game must
have at least 2 ½
quick tricks so
the math is easy. You can have a high probability that they are going down where
you can
not make your contract. Location of these HCP’s are a factor
also. Are they outside the suits
that partner has been bidding ?
The 2nd very obvious criteria is the strength
of their trump you are holding. Lots of wastage there with good spot
cards ? How long are they ?
Are they getting a 4-1 break or worse ? Points in
their suit are entirely useless for partner in these situations so identifying duplication of value was the reason D.S.I.P. doubles were born.
In my
mind , the most important factor in considering
whether to bid or pass , is the law of total tricks. In other words ,
how many of partners suit do you
hold ? The more you hold , the less defensive partners
hand becomes. If you have a singleton or doubleton in partners suit your
decision becomes easier for the conversion . You will
probably be going for –500 or –800 anyway so the –790 is not a disaster. The
gray area comes in when you have 3 of partners suit.
Any more than that , it is an automatic pull unless
you have their trump wrapped up.
The 4th
criteria is self
preservation. If partner’s D.S.I.P. competitive double has given you
a choice of “death by water or death by fire’ , you bite the bullet & just give them their
doubled game. Losing 4 IMPS is much better than going for a horrible number yourself . Maybe you can luck out & beat it !
Tom
Gandolfo had ♠x ♥x ♦KQ109 ♣AQJ10xxx , with favourable vulnerability overcalled 2♣ to the 1♠ opener. His LHO bid
2♦ , I passed with the
opener bidding 2♥. Tom bid again 3♣ which shows his distribution
& they leapt to 4♥ so around to Tom
again. Tom would like to sacrifice in 5♣ but cannot do it singlhandedly as I may be void in clubs with wasted points
in hearts. He has 2 ½ quick tricks so he doubles to ask permission to sacrifice
( taking out insurance ) . Now the decision is
transferred to my side. I hold ♠xxxx ♥Q987 ♦xx ♣xxx so I go thru my
criteria. I certainly do not hold any HCP to help him out. I may have 1 or 2
trump tricks depending on whether Tom has a stiff heart honour
(10 or better ) & the trump jack is on the board.
The 4 trump are in favour of conversion. However , the Law of
Total Tricks tells us it is best to take out insurance & bid.
Partner has a high probability of holding 7♣ ,
you have 3 giving 10 trump for the partnership. This is rough estimate that on
this auction we may have up to 10 tricks. Also , we
cannot get hurt badly in 5♣ so it may be cheap insurance anyway. This is
not a case where you must “bite the bullet” & pass as it is too expensive our way to bid.
Bidding
5♣ wins you 10 IMPS as almost everybody is +620 , the law of total tricks
is close as you get 9 tricks in clubs (-300). If you leave in the D.S.I.P.
double, you
lose 7 ( -790) for a 17 IMP swing. The field only sacrificed once as they do
not have the D.S.I.P. tool but would have to have done it singlehandedly. Most
players chose just to let them play it in 4♥ & try to beat
the contract.
I
gave the hand to another partner to see if he would convert .
Here is his reply “ Pull. He has defense if I have club
shortness. I have one trick (maybe not) and my club length reduces his tricks
to 2 (probably). Cheap insurance.”