Tuesday, January 03, 2006 4:52 PM

High Level Mathematics

PITBULLS:

The scoring and vulnerability is the “mathematics” of Bridge decision making. When the opponents pre-empt you to the 5 level or higher & partner doubles , she is not promising a T/O double per se. A double just shows “cards” and in most cases the double ends the auction. The only time the double is pulled is if slam or a vul game is virtually guaranteed . In IMPS , you shrug your shoulders and take your fix even if by bidding you can get a better score. Your partners better be wrecking the same level of havoc at the other table. The 5 level belongs to the opponents in 99% of the hands. Pre-empts force you into decisions you do not want to make or bad gambles you should not make. Just taking your plus is the easy way out in a vast majority of hands. The “house” has the edge in these kind of gamble and the pre-empter is the house.

An opening bid of 4 of a major or 5 of a minor puts a partnership in a different “zone” . The doubles are not takeout but co-operative or D.S.I.P. Here is an example of a bad decision induced by a pre-empt. Equal vulnerability nv RHO opened 5♣ . I held KJ1098 A Axxx Q109 so I doubled to show cards and trying to discourage a 5♥ balancer . Partner held x KJ109xx KQxx AK and with equal vulnerability bid 6♥. Lets examine the mathematics of the bid. If we make 6♥ , we get +980 and if we go down one which was happened at the table we get –50 . The 5♣ bidder goes for –1100 with an outside chance of –1400 . Qx xx x Jxxxxxxx. You have no guarantee of making 6 of anything as the double shows “cards” and may even be void in hearts. Bidding is just a silly blind gamble.

Playing with BJ Trelford , RHO opened 5♦ and again I wanted to show “cards” to discourage a 5♠ balancer so I doubled with x AJ1098x KJx Kxx . The 5 level belongs to the opponents and we are equal vulnerability nv. BJ held Axxx Kxxx void Axxxx and with the diamond void it is very tempting to pull. The opponents can easily have 8 or 9 solid diamonds and we are playing with a 30 HCP deck. I think passing here may be the wrong bid . We can beat 5♦X 800 with perfect defense but I do not need to hold wastage in diamonds for my double but I may have. I could also hold the club queen and 7♥ would make. Enter the problem of bad breaks and knowing what suit in which to play the hand. With a long suit shown on the auction , your trump suits are not going to break well. You can not just blindly guess and bid 6♣ as partner may be void in clubs or the suit may break badly. A 4-4 major fit may get pretty bad breaks also . An expert has a tool of 5NT which says choose a slam somewhere partner. If partner just wanted you to pick a major , she would have bid 6♦. On this hand , we land on our feet as over BJ’s 5NT bid , I bid 6♥ and we get +980. These kind of decisions are huge swings as you are changing a reasonable plus to a minus. To force partner to bid , you must be pretty sure you have an iron clad plus. Changing a +500 to a –50 or getting +980 is a huge IMP swing.

Would the vulnerability change any of these decisions ? Of course as the expected gain or pot odds would have been taken into consideration but Bridge involves intelligent gambling or risk taking. If the pot odds are not to your liking , they still buy the contract at the 5 level.