Monday, January 16, 2006 9:37 AM

Mathematics of Risk Taking

PITBULLS:

You must take risks or gamble in the game of Bridge. In fact , the greatest risk in Bridge is not taking one. The element of probability in the game of Bridge rewards intelligent gambling. Good poker players are good gamblers. They take risks depending on “pot odds” . In other words , what is their expected gain or loss when they gamble ? The amount of money they gamble is in proportion to the amount of the pot or what they expect to win.

Bridge players can borrow from poker players in how they gamble. The mathematics of gambling in Bridge quite often depends on the vulnerability. Both sides nv and the opponents open 3♠ and partner doubles . You hold AKx xxx xx AQ10xx so what do you bid ? Partner has enough values to force you to the 4 level so 3NT is obviously cold and since you have 3♠X booked in your own hand anything partner can contribute is down tricks. Do you have slam ? Yes , slam is a possibility but not a certainty. Here is where gambling comes in . With both sides nv you get rewarded with +920 for making 6♣. What are you giving up for the risk of bidding it on this vulnerability. 3♠X might go for +800 or on a bad day +500 . Therefore you are gambling +800 (13 IMPS) to gain (920-800= 120 or 3 IMPS ) . This is a very bad gamble 13-3 giving up 13 IMPS to gain 3 IMPS. You should pass and take your “bird in the hand”.

What if they were vul and you were not. Bidding would be even more silly as you are gambling 1100 to gain 920 ! Passing is obviously correct on this vulnerability. On this vulnerability when a decision to bid game is anywhere close , a good gamble is to pass the double. Especially if Maurice or Osama are pre-empting vul vrs nv J

Now the last vulnerability , they are nv and you are vul . You get +1370 for your slam and they go for 800 nv in 3♠X . You are gambling 13 IMPS to gain 13 IMPS . It is only even money ! Therefore your expectation of making 6♣ must be better than 50 % to make bidding slam a good bet. With 7 card suits around , bad breaks occur more frequently. The club suit could break bad or partner may not even have clubs for her double . Bidding 6♣ is a bad gamble even on this vulnerability. On this vulnerability , I would pull 3♠X to 3NT as insurance against them escaping for –500. This also gives partner a chance to bid again if slam is indeed on our way. Partner would not pull 3NT unless it is a slam try.

There is good gambling and bad gambling. Take a page from the poker player’s book and gamble intelligently in Bridge.