Optimism vrs Pessimism

PITBULLS:

If I had a dollar for every time Peter Jones said to Dave Smith “You Optimist Butcher !!” I would be a millionaire . Butcher does play the game with “rose coloured glasses” and it lands him in messes from time to time . However , basing your game of bridge on pessimism and worst case scenerio all the time is much worse . Bridge is played from randomly dealt cards that in the long run have to obey the laws of probability . Quite often the worst case scenerio is odds against ever happening but yet people base their bid on this one statistical event and ignore all other possibilities.

Playing in Montreal last year against a team that won the event the previous year , I noticed that they played a forcing club system and opened super light all the time . Quite often pessimism will occur in balancing . We have all had a bad experience in balancing in our bridge lives. The “what if” scenerios of finding partner with her expected points in the opponents hand and going for a number is a possibility. Is it an odds on possibility though ?? Say you do not balance in a period over 10 hands . On four of the hands you had a partial your way , on three of them you could have pushed them higher , one you had a game your way and two it did not matter . In this stretch of hands on the double partial swings you have lost 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps . In the partials you could have pushed them higher you have lost 4 IMPS and 4 IMPS , the game they stole from you have lost 10 IMPS . You have lost 40 IMPS to a team that opens super light by not balancing . You could have balanced and gone for –500 against their 140 and lose 360 for an 8 imps loss 5 times to break even !! I am sure that this team in Montreal robbed opponents blind on occasion with their light openers because of a lack of balancing by the other teams . Again , quoting Klimo the great Polish philosopher “ the greatest risk is not taking one” . This is the poker player mentality I discussed previously . Poker players gamble when in the long run it will pay off . Not gambling when the time calls for it will result in being a losing Poker player. I repeat my advice. Play bridge like a good poker player ! Gamble when in the long run it will pay off !

P ?

1♠ 2♠

P P

xx xx QJxxx AKxx

If you balance 2NT can you go for –500 ? Yes , in the worst case scenerio you can . Bui in this auction the opponents have only announced half the deck . Partner can have up to 10 HCP and cards in the minors for a double partial swing . Therefore you balance 2NT and expect to not go for 500 .

Pessimism hurts you in defense . If you feel that there is no way to beat a hand then you will not be able to visualize a scenario that you could have beat it . Giiving the opponents too much respect is also detrimental . I was recently guilty of that in a 3NT contract against Stan Cabay .

AQ987

10xx

xxxx

QJ

I lead my 4th best spade from J10xx against their 3NT contract . Stan won the 7 and Mr. Jones showed me 2 spades . Stan lead a heart and finessed into my hand. Jxx I reasoned that Stan is a very good player so he would not have blocked the spade suit with Kx unless he held the AK of clubs and his club was an entry. Against a weak declarer the standard defense is to attack the club entry while the spade suit is blocked . I just decided to play passive and not lead a club. However , it turns out that Mr. Jones did hold the K of clubs and he would have ducked to kill the entry . I just threw away 10 IMPS by being too pessimistic and giving the opponent too much respect. If the only way you can beat a hand is by playing for declarer to have made a mistake then play for it !!

Pessimism hurts you in the play of the hand also . Safety plays for bad beaks are necessary when the hand is otherwise cold. However suits do not always break badly and finesses do not always lose. If you can not afford to play for bad beaks than assume they are breaking and everything is rosy. I have seen so many declarers go down in slams and games they could have made because they were playing for bad breaks or positions that were against the odds in the first place. When the suits did break , you explain to partner well in 4% of the time the suit would have broken 5-0 . How do you reply when they say how about the other 96% of the time when the suits do not break 5-0 ?

Pessimists always accuse optimists of being lucky . No they are not any more lucky then anybody else . The odds favour good breaks 68 % of the time in 4-4 fits. Good players with the help of opponents bidding and counting out the hand can bring in finesses maybe 6 or 7 times out of 10 . Pessimists do not even give themselves a chance to have such “bridge luck” . They just see worst case scenarios all the time and it paralyzes them in their decision making . What if partner has KQJ of the opponents trump so I might not make my contract ? My reply is what about the other 97 times out of a 100 when I do not have that holding and you can make 5 , 6, or 7 in your contract. Rose coloured glasses are an asset in bridge .

Most good players are optimists and aggressive . By taking the optimistic approach you are almost gambling a push board. Taking a pessimistic view you are gambling losing 12 IMPS to gain 140 + 100 or +6 IMPS . That is 2 to 1 against so you better be right ! The late Mike Chomyn taught me a concept a couple of decades ago . We were down 50 IMPS at he half in a regional K.O. in Calgary against a pro team . He explained the concept of “negative swinging” . He told us not to bid tight games or slams and take no chances period. If the cards break badly and the finesses lose and if reasonable gambles do not pay off , then our “swinging” might get us out . We all heeded his advice and we won the second half 65 –12 mainly on terrible bad luck for the opponents ! We have all lost to Mama/Papa teams that way …

Optimism coupled with good judgment is the way to play bridge . It has been proved time and time again . The power of positive thinking vrs the power of negative thinking . It is no contest …