Friday, September 09, 2005 10:40 AM

Pot Odds

PITBULLS:

Bridge involves taking risks . However , like poker , the ‘pot odds” must be in your favour . What are pot odds as defined in the poker sense ? What this concept means is that when you risk a bet in poker the amount of money in the pot has to warrant the risk that you are taking given the probability of winning the poker hand. In other words if the chance of you winning the poker hand is 4:1 and you are risking $25.00 to win $200 it is a good bet because the “pot odds” are 25/200 or 8:1. In other words the amount of money you expect to gain exceeds the odds of losing.

Bridge experts use the same logic in determining Bridge decisions. A hand that drives this point home came up Thurs nite. You are in 3^rd seat nv vrs vul opponents with this beautiful collection xxx xxx 98765 xx . What tactical bid do you make if any ? Again this is “pot odds” type of thinking. Partner is a passed hand . The median HCP’s for a passed hand is 6 HCP . The reasoning is that partner could hold 12 ,11 ,10 ,9 , 8 , 7 , 6 , 5 , 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 so the median or expectd HCP’s is 6 right in the middle of the possible passed hands. Therefore the expected HCP’s for the opponents is 34 HCP ! . This means that on average you have +1430 to play with in determining your opening bid.

Maurice chose a psyche of 1♦ and 4 others all at the expert level chose pre-emptive action with the hand . The novice would say what a horrible bid – you should be in a mental hospital !! This hand is not even a baby risk !! . You have so much pot odds on your side it is not even dangerous in an expert field. Partner gives a lot of leeway when partner opens 3^rd seat nv vrs vul opponents . The opponents usually get more screwed up and miss their slam or make a wrong competitive situation if you “muddy the waters”. This risk is worth taking by anybody that has an even basic understanding of the game of Bridge.

Contrast this with the reckless action of opening 3♦ in 1^st seat vul vrs nv opponents with xx Kxx KJ10xxxx xx . This action is downright silly as a tactical bid. Partner is not a passed hand so you misdescribe your hand and leave partner open to making a wrong decision. This erodes partnership discipline and confidence . So what are your pot odds or what do you expect to gain from making such a bid ? You have only 3 ½ tricks in your hand so you risk going down –1400 against NV opponents who because of your heart king most likely just has a nv game your way. Therefore you expected gain is talking them out of a possible nv game by staying in a partial 170 vrs 420 a gain of 6 IMPs . Therefore you are gambling losing anywhere from16 to 10 IMPS with sets ranging from –1400 to –500 to gain 6 IMPS. You run the risk of eroding partnership discipline and making partner “gun shy” in future competitive auctions. This is IMPS stupidity at its worse. Which is the safest bid ? It should be obvious that opening or pre-empting on xxx xxx xxxxx xx nv in 3rd seat opposite vul opponents is a far safer tactic. Fools rush in where experts fear to tread and vice versa. Be aware of the risks you are taking ! Bridge experts borrow from poker players in using pot odds to guide their decisions.